Maldives Air Traffic in H1 2026: The Market That Rerouted Around a War

The year could hardly have started better. January and February 2026 were the two biggest inbound months ever recorded at Velana International Airport — 293,342 and 277,267 international arrivals, up 11.6% and 12.7% on a record 2025. Then, in late March, the Middle East conflict closed Gulf airspace, and the carriers that delivered more than a third of the Maldives’ inbound traffic — Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Flydubai — cut arrivals by 58% to 83% almost overnight.

What happened next is the story of the half.

Against a pre-war trajectory of roughly +12%, the market lost about 50,000 arrivals a month through the four war months. Yet first-half international inbound finished just 3.4% below last year at 1.28 million passengers — because the network reorganised in real time. Twenty-eight airlines grew while twenty-two shrank: SriLankan Airlines became the destination’s largest inbound carrier, Aeroflot climbed to third, and Turkish Airlines, Malaysia Airlines, Air Astana and China Eastern all added double-digit growth. Within one quarter, 52% of the lost Gulf capacity had been replaced via Colombo, Istanbul, Moscow, Kuala Lumpur and Central Asia.

The guests who came stayed longer and spent more. Official MMA data shows bednights fell just 0.3% in H1 even as arrivals fell 5.7%, with the average stay lengthening to 7.2 days. Travel receipts for January–May actually rose 1.9% year-on-year to USD 2.63 billion — 6.9% more per visitor — and February set an all-time monthly record of USD 844 million. China and Russia are now the destination’s two largest source markets, together nearly a third of all arrivals.

If passenger traffic bent without breaking, air cargo barely bent at all. Total cargo throughput at Velana rose about 9% in the first half, to more than 42,000 tonnes.

The standout is transhipment. Transit cargo jumped 32% year-on-year to 13,972 tonnes in H1, and March 2026 — the first month of the crisis — set an all-time monthly record of 3,633 tonnes. Freighter operator Afcom more than tripled its transit volumes (+219%), while SriLankan, Turkish (+90%), Austrian and Edelweiss all expanded belly uplift. Velana’s evolution from a pure origin-and-destination airport into a small but fast-growing Indian Ocean transhipment node continued straight through the disruption.

Imports proved almost immune. Gulf carriers’ inbound cargo fell 29%, cutting their share of imports from 51% to 37% — yet total cargo-in slipped only 1.2%, as SriLankan (+40%), Turkish (+62%) and others absorbed the flows. Exports, the market’s long-standing weak point, grew 17.6% and are on track for their best year since 2023.

The second half hinges on the winter schedule. October–December accounts for 27% of annual arrivals and leans heavily on European travellers who reach Malé through the Gulf; with UAE airspace restrictions lifted since May and Gulf carriers rebuilding capacity through July, a near-normal peak season is within reach. Our base case sees full-year arrivals essentially flat against 2025’s record — a remarkable outcome for a year that contained a regional war — with cargo transhipment heading for roughly 33,000 tonnes, up more than a quarter.

The deeper lesson of H1 2026 is structural: demand for the Maldives is strong enough to route around a closed sky, on both the passenger deck and the main deck. For airlines, forwarders and investors alike, that resilience — and the diversification it has accelerated — is the real headline.